John Paulson
Event-driven and merger arbitrage specialist who identified the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble years before it burst. Made the single greatest trade in Wall Street history by shorting mortgage-backed securities in 2007, returning 590% in one year.
Paulson & Co. managed $3.26 trillion across just nine positions during Q4 2025. The fund saw minimal activity, adding one new stock and exiting one, while its five largest holdings consumed 89.1% of assets. MDGL alone represented 30.5% of the portfolio, followed by PPTA at 24.0%, BHC at 15.6%, AAMI at 11.2%, and NG completing the concentrated top five at 7.8%.
Top 10 Holdings โ Q4 2025
| Stock | Weight | Activity | Shares ฮ | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MDGL MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC | Reduce โ10% | โ200K | $994.36B | |
PPTA PERPETUA RESOURCES CORP | Hold | โ | $783.13B | |
BHC BAUSCH HEALTH COS INC | Add +4% | +2.50M | $509.13B | |
AAMI ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | Hold | โ | $363.93B | |
NG NOVAGOLD RES INC | Hold | โ | $253.86B | |
AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | Hold | โ | $132.84B | |
THM INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MIN | Hold | โ | $130.65B | |
SOLS SOLSTICE ADVANCED MATLS INC | New Buy | +1.40M new | $67.81B | |
THRY THRYV HLDGS INC | Add +2% | +67K | $26.30B |
Paulson’s Implied Market View
Last Quarter Activity โ Q4 2025
| Stock | Action | Shares ฮ | Value | Wt. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SOLS SOLSTICE ADVANCED MATLS INC | New Buy | +1.40M new | $67.81B | 2.08% |
BHC BAUSCH HEALTH COS INC | Add +4% | +2.50M | $509.13B | 15.61% |
THRY THRYV HLDGS INC | Add +2% | +67K | $26.30B | 0.81% |
QoQ change vs Sep 2025 filing.
| Stock | Action | Shares ฮ | Value | Wt. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MDGL MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC | Reduce โ10% | โ200K | $994.36B | 30.48% |
HON HON HONEYWELL INTL INC | Full Exit | Sold 100% | $42.10B | 0% |
TMQ TMQ TRILOGY METALS INC NEW | Full Exit | Sold 100% | $30.09B | 0% |
QoQ change vs Sep 2025 filing.
New Positions in Q4 2025
Paulson initiated one significant new equity position in Q4 2025. He acquired $67.81 billion of SOLSTICE ADVANCED MATLS INC (SOLS). The veteran investor’s materials bet hints at a specific corporate catalyst. He built his reputation identifying market dislocations and exploiting them. Paulson likely sees an undervaluation tied to a potential merger, spin-off, or industry consolidation. This substantial commitment reflects a conviction about a fundamental change in the advanced materials sector.
Paulson’s sole new position, SOLS, aligns with his established investment methodology. He consistently targets unique, event-driven scenarios. His historic 590% return from shorting mortgage-backed securities in 2007 demonstrated a singular skill for spotting major dislocations. The SOLS investment suggests he again identifies a specific, mispriced opportunity within a complex market structure. He executes significant, concentrated bets when he perceives such a distinct event unfolding.
| Stock | Action | Value |
|---|---|---|
SOLS SOLSTICE ADVANCED MATLS INC | New Buy | $67.81B |
Increased Positions & Conviction Moves
John Paulson, the investor who identified the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble years before it burst, made precise adjustments to his Q4 2025 portfolio. His firm increased BHC holdings by 4%, elevating the position to $509.13 billion. Paulson simultaneously added 2% to THRY, expanding that stake to $26.30 billion. These calculated, small-percentage additions reflect Paulson’s characteristic pattern: he reinforces existing high-conviction event-driven or merger arbitrage plays rather than initiating new ones. The strategy mirrors his 2007 method of scaling into a thesis, albeit on a different side of the trade.
| Stock | Action | Value |
|---|---|---|
BHC BAUSCH HEALTH COS INC | Add +4% | $509.13B |
THRY THRYV HLDGS INC | Add +2% | $26.30B |
Stocks Sold or Reduced in Q4 2025
Paulson & Co. adjusted positions in Q4 2025, reducing its Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) stake by 10%. This trim from an event-driven specialist signals evolving conviction on specific corporate catalysts for the biotech company. Paulson identified the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble years before it burst, generating a 590% return shorting mortgage-backed securities in 2007. His firm’s portfolio changes often precede shifts in expected outcomes.
Trimming MDGL by 10% suggests diminished enthusiasm for a near-term event, or a decision to deploy capital elsewhere for better risk-adjusted returns. Paulson’s strategies depend on precise market triggers; a reduction indicates those triggers appear less compelling. Capital allocation aligns with evolving market dynamics.
| Stock | Action | ฮ Value | Shares ฮ |
|---|---|---|---|
MDGL MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC | Reduce โ10% | $994.36B | 200K |
Why Paulson’s Moves Matter
Paulson’s Q4 2025 portfolio shifts signal a concentrated bet on sector-specific events rather than broad macro plays. He allocated 30.5% to MDGL, valued at $994.36 billion, 24.0% to PPTA, valued at $783.13 billion, and 15.6% to BHC, valued at $509.13 billion. This heavy concentration in biotech and pharmaceuticals aligns with his history of identifying mispriced assets ahead of significant corporate catalysts. A new position, the sole addition this quarter, further suggests conviction in idiosyncratic opportunities. Paulson famously identified the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble, making a 590% return in 2007 by shorting mortgage-backed securities; his current moves demonstrate a continued focus on event-driven strategies.
Paulson’s sharp sector focus offers lessons for investors, though inherent lags limit direct replication. His portfolio, dominated by MDGL, PPTA, and BHC, indicates where a discerning eye finds potential value. Paulson’s Q4 moves reflect a precise targeting of assets expected to experience specific corporate events. Remember, public 13F filings appear 45 days after quarter end, meaning current holdings may differ significantly. These disclosures showcase *past* positions; retail investors should not simply mirror trades, but rather understand the rationale behind such concentrated, event-driven bets from a manager who executed Wall Street’s single greatest trade.
About John Paulson
Event-driven and merger arbitrage specialist who identified the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble years before it burst. Made the single greatest trade in Wall Street history by shorting mortgage-backed securities in 2007, returning 590% in one year.
- Netted ~$15B for clients and $4B personally shorting subprime mortgages in 2007
- Paulson Credit Fund returned 590% in 2007 โ the greatest annual fund return in history
- Manages merger arbitrage, event-driven, and gold strategies
- Later pivoted to gold and real assets โ one of history’s largest gold ETF holders
Complete Q4 2025 13F Holdings
| Stock | Weight | Activity | Shares ฮ | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MDGL MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC | Reduce โ10% | โ200K | $994.36B | |
PPTA PERPETUA RESOURCES CORP | Hold | โ | $783.13B | |
BHC BAUSCH HEALTH COS INC | Add +4% | +2.50M | $509.13B | |
AAMI ACADIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC | Hold | โ | $363.93B | |
NG NOVAGOLD RES INC | Hold | โ | $253.86B | |
AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | Hold | โ | $132.84B | |
THM INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MIN | Hold | โ | $130.65B | |
SOLS SOLSTICE ADVANCED MATLS INC | New Buy | +1.40M new | $67.81B | |
THRY THRYV HLDGS INC | Add +2% | +67K | $26.30B |
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data: sec-api.io & SEC EDGAR 13F-HR filings. 13F filings are filed 45 days after quarter end โ positions may have changed. Last updated: 2026-04-13.
